Home sales in Metro Vancouver decreased by 3.8 per cent year-over-year in September, signaling that recent reductions in borrowing costs have yet to significantly boost demand, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

The region saw 1,852 residential sales in September, down from 1,926 in the same period last year. This figure is also 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,502.

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “Sales continue trending roughly 25 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now.

Lis adds that although sales are now tracking slightly below GVR’s forecast, they remain optimistic that 2024 sales will still end up higher than 2023’s.

Market overview

There were 6,144 new listings in September, a 12.8 per cent increase from last year and 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. Properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver totalled 14,932 units, up 31.2 per cent from September 2023.

The overall sales-to-active listings ratio was 12.8 per cent, with detached homes at 9.1 per cent, attached homes at 16.9 per cent and apartments at 14.6 per cent. 

‘All signs pointing to further (rate) reductions; it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall’

The increase in new listings has provided buyers with more options, leading to downward pressure on prices and a buyer’s market. “With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines,” Lis notes.

The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver now stands at $1,179,700, reflecting a 1.8 per cent year-over-year decrease and a 1.4 per cent decline from August 2024. 

Detached homes

Sales of detached homes dropped 9.8 per cent compared to last year, with 516 units sold in September. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200, a 0.5 per cent increase year-over-year but down 1.3 per cent from August.

Apartment homes

Apartment sales fell 4.9 per cent, with 940 units sold. The benchmark price for an apartment is $762,000, marking a 0.8 per cent decline year-over-year and month-over-month.

Attached homes

Attached homes, however, saw a 7.4 per cent increase in sales year-over-year, totaling 378 units. The benchmark price for townhomes is $1,099,200, down 0.5 per cent from September 2023 and 1.8 per cent from August.

Review the full report here.

Last month, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reported that climbing sales in higher price ranges couldn’t fully offset the decline in lower-priced homes. This led to 2,003 sales — 17 per cent below last year’s record. However, sales were still over 16 per cent higher than typical September levels.

Demand strong across all price ranges but lower-priced choice is limited, preventing stronger sales

“We are starting to see a rise in new listings in our market. However, most of the listing growth is occurring in the higher price ranges,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB. “While demand has stayed strong across all price ranges, the limited choice for lower-priced homes has likely prevented stronger sales in our market.”

Lurie explains that challenges in the lower price ranges aren’t expected to change and improved supply and lower lending rates should keep demand strong throughout the fall, but without the extreme seller market conditions that fueled rapid price growth earlier this year.

New listings

New listings in September climbed to 3,687 units, the highest since 2008 for this month. While this rise helped boost inventory, September’s count reached 5,064 units — almost double the spring lows but still below the usual 6,000 units for September.

With inventory improving compared to sales, the market is gradually shifting towards more balanced conditions. In September, months of supply reached 2.5 — higher than last year’s record low but creating conditions that still favour sellers.

Home prices and inventory

Increased supply has eased some pressure on home prices. September’s unadjusted benchmark price was $596,900, slightly lower than August but still over 5.0 per cent higher than last year. Detached homes saw nearly 9.0 per cent year-over-year price growth, while apartment condominiums led with a 14 per cent gain, highlighting the shifting sales composition.

Detached homes

Despite 9.0 per cent sales growth for homes over $700,000, a significant pullback in homes priced below $600,000 resulted in 942 total sales — 17 per cent less than last year. New listings are stabilizing the higher-priced segment, leading to more balanced conditions for homes priced above $700,000.

In September, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $757,100 — down slightly from August but nearly 9.0 per cent higher year-over-year. Tighter conditions for lower-priced homes have driven much of this price growth.

Semi-detached homes

September saw 299 new listings and 182 sales, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 61 per cent. Despite gains in listings, inventory remains tight, with less than 400 units available — 33 per cent below long-term trends. Months of supply improved to just above two but remained seller-favourable, and the unadjusted benchmark price eased slightly to $678,400 — still over 9.0 per cent higher than last year.

Row homes

Over 600 new listings hit the market in September, with 70 per cent priced above $400,000. Sales totaled 377 units, slightly down from last year, but inventories rose to 747 units — an improvement over the past two years. This increase led to nearly two months of supply, slowing price growth. The unadjusted benchmark price was $459,200 — 10 per cent higher than last year.

Apartment condominium homes

September saw strong gains in new listings with 993 units, while sales dropped to 502. This drop caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 50 per cent and inventories to rise to 1,623 units. Months of supply climbed to 3.2, the highest since 2021. The unadjusted benchmark price for apartment condominiums was $345,000 — up 14 per cent year-over-year. Despite the price easing, year-to-date prices still reflect a 17 per cent increase over 2023.

Review CREB’s full reports for the city and region.

There’s an interesting pattern emerging in Canadian real estate: ever since the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut, home sales have increased as buyers get improved affordability, though still well below the long-term average.

Price recovery is still yet to be found, and sales volume trended up again 1.3 per cent month-over-month in August, reaching its highest level since January 2020.

At the same time, new listing activity continues to accumulate with new listings climbing for the fourth straight month. Will this trend continue? The market will head into buyer’s market territory, where supply is outgrowing demand.

With that in mind, there are expectations that future rate cuts into 2025 well lead to cautious optimism among potential buyers and investors.

Newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offset GTA decline 

Despite the uptick in sales, the market remains mostly stuck in a holding pattern as many buyers are waiting for improved affordability before making purchases.

The number of newly listed properties increased by 1.1 per cent month-over-month in August, with approximately 177,450 properties available for sale — up 18.8 per cent from the previous year, but still below historical averages.

But for the second month in a row, there was a boost in new supply in Calgary, with Edmonton also witnessing an uptick of listings. The rise of newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offsets a decline in the GTA. 

Consistent, stable increase in sales-to-new-listings

The national sales-to-new listing ratio rose slightly to 53 per cent, matching our record in April. We’re a long way from returning to what was our highest average of sales-to-new listings which we achieved in December 2023: 81 per cent.

We have been relatively and consistently stable ever since our increase from January’s 46 per cent to February’s 52 per cent. So, it may be some news that we’ve matched our April 2024 average. 

Prices

After Canada experienced a record high price in 2022, the market recoiled down about as quickly as it jumped up. Since the bottom of the recoil, we’ve seen very little upward or downward momentum in price. 

Significant fluctuation in GTA condominiums

Toronto area condominium apartments are having a significant fluctuation, with a recoil off of an all-time high price and a few bounces since the blow-off top. 

Source: x.com/Tablesalt13/

It’s clear that the outlook doesn’t look good for 2025, as it seems it will touch the 350 margin — the record low from around 450 in January 2022.

Luxury real estate in Canada’s biggest markets has been stable, with fewer price fluctuations compared to the mainstream housing market.

The 2024 Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Market Report, released today, notes that luxury home sales were up in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, except in Vancouver, Toronto and Halifax. Prices rose slightly in some regions and dropped slightly in others.

‘Buyers in this segment know what they want and they are willing to wait for it’

“Homes typically trade hands at the high end of the market at a slower pace than we see in the industry overall, as the funnel of potential purchasers narrows as the price of properties climbs. This affords luxury buyers the luxury of acting more deliberately, taking their time in a quest to find exactly the right home,” says Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage.

He explains that although market conditions can vary from one location to the next, luxury real estate market dynamics nationwide stay consistent: “Buyers in this segment know what they want and they are willing to wait for it.”

Standout regions

Luxury markets in the Prairie provinces, led by Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary, recorded some of the largest sales increases, reflecting strong demand.

Quebec City also saw significant growth in luxury sales.

Luxury market activity driven by consumer confidence

Luxury buyers, often less impacted by high interest rates and the need for mortgages, are driven by confidence in the broader economy and macroeconomic factors. In some regions, high construction costs are fueling demand for turn-key resale properties, while in others, buyers prefer to build custom homes despite extended timelines.

“Luxury buyers typically have the means to be picky … Often, their decision whether to buy or not is driven by their confidence in the health of the overall economy and the direction they see housing prices headed. Our research shows those in the higher end of the housing market have a very positive outlook on the long-term stability and appreciation potential of Canada’s housing stock,” notes Soper.

Foreign buyer ban has minimal impact

While the federal government’s two-year ban on foreign buyers, implemented in January 2023, briefly reduced demand in some affluent markets, it has not significantly impacted luxury property prices or inventory levels.

With the ban extended until 2027, Soper notes, “Two years in, and the prohibition on foreign buyers has had virtually no impact on housing prices in Canada, as we expected. Prolonging the international buyer ban will not make housing more accessible to Canadians.”

He explains that the key issue is the upward pressure on prices continuing as long as supply fails to meet the demand for homes.

Experts in all major Canadian cities expect to see brisk activity in this fall’s market.

Review the full report, including regional summaries.

The Ottawa real estate market saw increased activity in August, with 1,100 homes sold, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 10.2 per cent rise compared to August 2023, though sales remained below both the five-year (-11.4 per cent) and 10-year (-14.1 per cent) averages for the month.

Year-to-date, Ottawa has recorded 9,444 home sales in 2024, a 6.0 per cent increase from the year prior.

Buyers remain cautious, advised to remain patient and work with realtors

“Being a seasonal market, it’s very encouraging to see sustained levels of activity throughout the whole summer,” says OREB president-elect Paul Czan. “And coupled with a third consecutive interest rate drop from the Bank of Canada, we are anticipating a heated market in the fall.”

While affordability remains a key concern for buyers, a steady stream of new listings and stable prices have kept them cautious. Czan notes that sellers must remain patient and work closely with realtors to price their homes appropriately and develop strong selling strategies.

Source: OREB

Price trends

Last month, the area’s composite benchmark price was $646,000, down by 0.3 per cent year-over-year. The benchmark price was $732,500 for single-family homes (-0.3 per cent), $502,200 for townhouse/row units (+0.3 per cent) and $416,800 for apartments (-1.2 per cent).

The average price of homes sold in August was $660,341, reflecting a 0.3 per cent increase from the year prior. Year-to-date, the average home price stands at $678,327, up 0.9 per cent from the previous year.

Inventory & listings

Ottawa’s housing inventory saw notable gains in August, with 1,907 new residential listings, 0.2 per cent more than the previous year. Active listings grew by 25.8 per cent to reach 3,324 units, while months of inventory rose to 3.0, up from 2.6 in August 2023.

Last month’s Metro Vancouver home sales stayed below 10-year seasonal averages, according to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). The region’s residential sales totalled 1,904, marking a 17.1 per cent decline from the 2,296 sales the year before and 26 per cent less than the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.” 

Buyers’ hesitancy + new listing activity result in accumulated inventory & balanced market conditions

4,109 new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties were on Metro Vancouver’s MLS in August, a 4.2 per cent increase from the 3,943 properties listed the year before. Despite the increase, the total was 1.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,179).

The total number of properties listed for sale stands at 13,812, a 37 per cent rise from August 2023’s total of 10,082 and 20.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,432.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio in August was 14.3 per cent. By category, it was 9.6 per cent for detached homes, 18 per cent for attached homes and 17.2 per cent for apartments.

“Buyers’ hesitancy to enter the market, paired with new listing activity on the part of sellers that is in line with historical averages, has allowed inventory to accumulate for a number of months and has moved the market firmly into balanced conditions,” Lis notes.

He says that with the Bank of Canada reducing the policy rate this month by another quarter percentage point, and with September being a time that often sees more seasonal sales, the fall market should bring more buyers off the sidelines.

Where prices landed

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently sits at $1,195,900, 0.9 per cent less than August 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than July 2024.

By property type, detached home sales reached 509, a 13.9 per cent decline from 591 the year before. Apartment sales totalled 1,012 in August, 20.3 per cent less than the 1,270 sales in August 2023 and attached homes totalled 370 sales last month, 12.3 per cent less than the 422 sales of the prior year.

Review the full report here.

In July, Ottawa’s housing market saw a significant uptick in activity, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS system, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 13.6 per cent increase from July 2023, signaling a strong month for sales.

However, despite this surge, home sales were still 7.1 per cent below the five-year average and 8.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of July. Year-to-date, total home sales reached 8,349 units in July, a 5.5 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Encouraging market activity but Ottawa needs supply-side action

“As the market pace typically slows in the summer, July’s activity is encouraging and could be a sign of more gains ahead,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Buyer confidence is slowly but surely catching up while sellers continue to add a steady stream of new listings. Of course, the extent to which that translates into transactions depends on the type of properties and price points available in our communities as supply and affordability issues persist.”

“It’s too early to tell, but recent policy developments could be a boost,” says Fillier. “Two consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, coupled with the federal government’s introduction of 30-year amortization periods on mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes, will help some buyers. However, these are demand policies, and Ottawa — as well as many cities across the country — needs action on the supply side.”

Housing supply growth challenges and OREB’s response

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted ongoing challenges in housing supply growth, pointing to municipal zoning restrictions and high development fees as significant barriers. Recent Ontario government data underscores these challenges, showing that Ottawa has built 1,593 homes out of its 12,583 target for 2024.

In response, OREB and its member realtors continue to advocate for solutions to the housing crisis, including allowing four units per lot and reducing high development fees.

Source: OREB

July prices

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was $648,900 in July, a slight increase of 0.1 per cent from July 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $734,700, down 0.1 per cent year-over-year. Townhouse/row units saw a 3.4 per cent increase, with a benchmark price of $506,100. The benchmark apartment price was $422,800, a 0.9 per cent decrease from the previous year.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 was $679,610, down 2.1 per cent from July 2023. Year-to-date, the average price stood at $681,082, up 1.0 per cent from last year.

July inventory & new listings

July 2024 also saw a 17.1 per cent increase in new residential listings, with 2,231 new listings hitting the market. This figure was 6.3 per cent above the five-year average and 6.9 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of July.

Active residential listings reached 3,480 units by the end of July, marking a 37 per cent increase from the previous year. This inventory level was 50.6 per cent above the five-year average but 2.3 per cent below the 10-year average for July. The months of inventory rose to 2.8 months in July, up from 2.3 months during the same time in 2023.

Review the full report here.

Last month, 804 homes were sold in the Hamilton-Burlington area via MLS, the Cornerstone Association of Realtors (CAR) reports.

This contributed to a year-to-date decline of six per cent. Although year-to-date sales declined across the Hamilton-Burlington market area, July’s Niagara North levels were comparable to the same time last year. 

Third consecutive year of sales below long-term trends 

“This marks the third consecutive year that sales have remained below long-term trends. At the same time, we are experiencing a gain in new listings. While rates are slowly coming down, for some existing owners the prospect of higher renewal rates is enough to cause them to list their properties, driving up supply levels,” says Nicolas von Bredow, Cornerstone spokesperson for the Hamilton-Burlington market area.

New listings in July rose relative to sales, lowering the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 42 per cent. Inventory levels are similar to last month and higher than last year, while months-of-supply surpassed four months (which has not happened in July since 2010).

More supply brings more choice and lower prices

More supply offers buyers more choice and continues to place downward pressure on home prices, with the unadjusted benchmark price at $843,500, almost one per cent lower than in June and three per cent lower than in July 2023.

Although prices are below the 2022 peak, they’re still higher than pre-pandemic levels and year-to-date average benchmark prices are just slightly lower than last year.

Review the full report for more information, and see other CAR market stats here.

Canada’s housing market finds itself, as of June, poised for a comeback after a challenging year. The trigger? A strategic interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, leading to a 3.7 per cent rise in national home sales compared to May. After months of declining activity, the market is showing signs of life, but the road ahead is filled with uncertainties and hardship for both industry professionals and buyers and sellers alike.

But will this interest rate cut be enough? Is it the start of a cutting cycle? Will it get worse before it gets better? We look into the story behind the numbers, examining how economic policy, consumer sentiment and regional differences are shaping the recovery of Canada’s real estate landscape.

Dialed back expectations around interest rate cuts — cuts that would draw in buyers

Since the last forecast in April, expectations surrounding interest rate cuts this year have been dialed back as the market has seen an influx of properties with many sellers listing their homes in the spring. However, buyer activity and consumer sentiment have remained low. 

It’s anticipated that gradually lowering interest rates will eventually draw buyers back into the market. Nonetheless, the sluggish spring market and increasing supply levels have led to a downward revision in sales and average home price projections.

26% more listings than last June but below historical average

In 2024, approximately 472,395 residential properties are expected to be sold, marking a 6.1 per cent increase from 2023, whereas the total average home price is projected to rise by 2.5 per cent to $694,393.

Looking ahead to 2025, home sales are forecasted to increase by 6.2 per cent to 501,902 units, supported by continued declines in interest rates and returning demand. The national average home price is anticipated to climb by 5 per cent to $729,319.

But what really happened is by the end of June, there were about 180,000 properties listed for sale, which is a 26 per cent improvement from the previous year but remains below the historical average of approximately 200,000 sales by this month.

Possible slowdown in inventory buildup, approaching balanced market conditions

The number of new listings increased modestly by 1.5 per cent month-over-month, while the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up by 0.1 per cent from May 2024. Despite these slight gains, the HPI was down 3.4 per cent year-over-year, and the national average sale price decreased by 1.6 per cent compared to June 2023.

The end-of-June supply of properties was up by 26 per cent from the previous year but remained below the historical average, suggesting a possible slowdown in inventory buildup. The national sales-to-new listings ratio improved to 53.9 per cent in June from 52.8 per cent in May, approaching the long-term average of 55 per cent and indicative of balanced market conditions.

Housing prices fluctuating

Regionally, housing prices continue to fluctuate. Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Montreal and Quebec City’s prices have been on an upward trajectory since early last year, while Ontario and Nova Scotia have also seen recent price increases starting late last year.

However, the non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI remains 3.4 per cent below June 2023 levels, reflecting the sharp price increases that occurred in the spring and early summer of 2023. The national average home price in June was $696,179, down 1.6 per cent from the same month the previous year.

Our takeaways: the story of Canada’s housing market in June 2024 is one of cautious optimism and evolving dynamics. The early signs of revival triggered by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate strategy have laid the groundwork for continued cuts and expected (hopeful) growth in the coming years.

With a projected 6.1 per cent increase in property sales this year and continued growth into 2025, there’s a sense of nervous anticipation as buyers’ and sellers’ expectations have more ground to cover. However, the story is far from over.

The market’s future depends on overcoming challenges like rebuilding buyer confidence and managing the complex relationship of supply and demand. Looking ahead, the ongoing story of Canada’s housing market promises a mix of resilience, adaptation and hopeful progression.

Ottawa saw 1,439 homes sold last month, which was 0.1 per cent more than the same time last year and 7.5 per cent below the five-year average for June, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB).

Year-to-date, home sales totaled 7,109 units for the first half of the year — an increase of 4.2 per cent from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa continues to see steady activity as we head into the summer market,” says OREB president, Curtis Fillier. “Unlike recent years, buyers have more room to wait, evaluate and be selective when searching for the right property at the right price, leading to a slight uptick in the days on market. Sellers are making moves as evidenced by the inventory and listings. After recovering from last year’s slowdown, Ottawa’s market performance is nearly back on par and continues to make gains.

It’s going to be an interesting summer and next half of the year. As confidence builds, there will be ample opportunities for both parties. Now is the time for sellers to ensure their property is at its best and priced appropriately to attract buyers who remain slightly reluctant. Buyers would do well to remember that inventory levels — and competition — can swing quickly in Ottawa’s tight market.”

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was $647,700 in June, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from June 2023.

Single-family homes averaged $734,300, down 0.2 per cent year-over-year in June, townhouse /row unit homes averaged $501,500, down 1.6 per cent from the year prior, and apartment homes averaged $420,800, 1.7 per cent less than a year ago.

Inventory & new listings

Ottawa had an increase of 4.7 per cent more new listings last month (2,469) compared to June 2023, which was 0.8 per cent below the five-year average.

There were 3,585 total active listings, up 45.5 per cent from the same period last year, which was 57.8 per cent more than the five-year average. Months of inventory stood at 2.5, up from 1.7 the year prior.