market trends Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/market-trends/ Canada’s premier magazine for real estate professionals. Wed, 09 Oct 2024 18:39:06 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://realestatemagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/cropped-REM-Fav-32x32.png market trends Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/market-trends/ 32 32 Vancouver home sales dip despite lower borrowing costs as market moves in favour of buyers: GVR https://realestatemagazine.ca/vancouver-home-sales-dip-despite-lower-borrowing-costs-as-market-moves-in-favour-of-buyers-gvr/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/vancouver-home-sales-dip-despite-lower-borrowing-costs-as-market-moves-in-favour-of-buyers-gvr/#respond Tue, 08 Oct 2024 04:01:05 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34939 Despite recent mortgage rate cuts, sales in Metro Vancouver fell 3.8% year-over-year. With rising inventory and slower sales, it’s becoming a buyer’s market

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Home sales in Metro Vancouver decreased by 3.8 per cent year-over-year in September, signaling that recent reductions in borrowing costs have yet to significantly boost demand, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

The region saw 1,852 residential sales in September, down from 1,926 in the same period last year. This figure is also 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,502.

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “Sales continue trending roughly 25 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now.

Lis adds that although sales are now tracking slightly below GVR’s forecast, they remain optimistic that 2024 sales will still end up higher than 2023’s.

 

Market overview

 

There were 6,144 new listings in September, a 12.8 per cent increase from last year and 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. Properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver totalled 14,932 units, up 31.2 per cent from September 2023.

The overall sales-to-active listings ratio was 12.8 per cent, with detached homes at 9.1 per cent, attached homes at 16.9 per cent and apartments at 14.6 per cent. 

 

‘All signs pointing to further (rate) reductions; it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall’

 

The increase in new listings has provided buyers with more options, leading to downward pressure on prices and a buyer’s market. “With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines,” Lis notes.

The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver now stands at $1,179,700, reflecting a 1.8 per cent year-over-year decrease and a 1.4 per cent decline from August 2024. 

 

Detached homes

 

Sales of detached homes dropped 9.8 per cent compared to last year, with 516 units sold in September. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200, a 0.5 per cent increase year-over-year but down 1.3 per cent from August.

 

Apartment homes

 

Apartment sales fell 4.9 per cent, with 940 units sold. The benchmark price for an apartment is $762,000, marking a 0.8 per cent decline year-over-year and month-over-month.

 

Attached homes

 

Attached homes, however, saw a 7.4 per cent increase in sales year-over-year, totaling 378 units. The benchmark price for townhomes is $1,099,200, down 0.5 per cent from September 2023 and 1.8 per cent from August.

 

Review the full report here.

 

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Rising listings in high-price markets boost inventory despite sales dip in lower prices: CREB https://realestatemagazine.ca/rising-listings-in-high-price-markets-boost-inventory-despite-sales-dip-in-lower-prices-creb/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/rising-listings-in-high-price-markets-boost-inventory-despite-sales-dip-in-lower-prices-creb/#respond Thu, 03 Oct 2024 04:01:27 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34833 September saw inventory gains and price growth easing, but sellers still have the advantage in Calgary and area

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Last month, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reported that climbing sales in higher price ranges couldn’t fully offset the decline in lower-priced homes. This led to 2,003 sales — 17 per cent below last year’s record. However, sales were still over 16 per cent higher than typical September levels.

 

Demand strong across all price ranges but lower-priced choice is limited, preventing stronger sales

 

“We are starting to see a rise in new listings in our market. However, most of the listing growth is occurring in the higher price ranges,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB. “While demand has stayed strong across all price ranges, the limited choice for lower-priced homes has likely prevented stronger sales in our market.”

Lurie explains that challenges in the lower price ranges aren’t expected to change and improved supply and lower lending rates should keep demand strong throughout the fall, but without the extreme seller market conditions that fueled rapid price growth earlier this year.

 

New listings

 

New listings in September climbed to 3,687 units, the highest since 2008 for this month. While this rise helped boost inventory, September’s count reached 5,064 units — almost double the spring lows but still below the usual 6,000 units for September.

With inventory improving compared to sales, the market is gradually shifting towards more balanced conditions. In September, months of supply reached 2.5 — higher than last year’s record low but creating conditions that still favour sellers.

 

Home prices and inventory

 

Increased supply has eased some pressure on home prices. September’s unadjusted benchmark price was $596,900, slightly lower than August but still over 5.0 per cent higher than last year. Detached homes saw nearly 9.0 per cent year-over-year price growth, while apartment condominiums led with a 14 per cent gain, highlighting the shifting sales composition.

 

Detached homes

 

Despite 9.0 per cent sales growth for homes over $700,000, a significant pullback in homes priced below $600,000 resulted in 942 total sales — 17 per cent less than last year. New listings are stabilizing the higher-priced segment, leading to more balanced conditions for homes priced above $700,000.

In September, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $757,100 — down slightly from August but nearly 9.0 per cent higher year-over-year. Tighter conditions for lower-priced homes have driven much of this price growth.

 

Semi-detached homes

 

September saw 299 new listings and 182 sales, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 61 per cent. Despite gains in listings, inventory remains tight, with less than 400 units available — 33 per cent below long-term trends. Months of supply improved to just above two but remained seller-favourable, and the unadjusted benchmark price eased slightly to $678,400 — still over 9.0 per cent higher than last year.

 

Row homes

 

Over 600 new listings hit the market in September, with 70 per cent priced above $400,000. Sales totaled 377 units, slightly down from last year, but inventories rose to 747 units — an improvement over the past two years. This increase led to nearly two months of supply, slowing price growth. The unadjusted benchmark price was $459,200 — 10 per cent higher than last year.

 

Apartment condominium homes

 

September saw strong gains in new listings with 993 units, while sales dropped to 502. This drop caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 50 per cent and inventories to rise to 1,623 units. Months of supply climbed to 3.2, the highest since 2021. The unadjusted benchmark price for apartment condominiums was $345,000 — up 14 per cent year-over-year. Despite the price easing, year-to-date prices still reflect a 17 per cent increase over 2023.

 

Review CREB’s full reports for the city and region.

 

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Canadian real estate: Signs of recovery come with rising listings and cautious optimism https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadian-real-estate-signs-of-recovery-come-with-rising-listings-and-cautious-optimism/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadian-real-estate-signs-of-recovery-come-with-rising-listings-and-cautious-optimism/#comments Fri, 20 Sep 2024 04:03:47 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34520 With new listings up for the fourth consecutive month, is the market heading into buyer's territory, especially in Edmonton and Calgary?

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There’s an interesting pattern emerging in Canadian real estate: ever since the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut, home sales have increased as buyers get improved affordability, though still well below the long-term average.

Price recovery is still yet to be found, and sales volume trended up again 1.3 per cent month-over-month in August, reaching its highest level since January 2020.

 

 

 

At the same time, new listing activity continues to accumulate with new listings climbing for the fourth straight month. Will this trend continue? The market will head into buyer’s market territory, where supply is outgrowing demand.

 

With that in mind, there are expectations that future rate cuts into 2025 well lead to cautious optimism among potential buyers and investors.

 

Newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offset GTA decline 

 

Despite the uptick in sales, the market remains mostly stuck in a holding pattern as many buyers are waiting for improved affordability before making purchases.

The number of newly listed properties increased by 1.1 per cent month-over-month in August, with approximately 177,450 properties available for sale — up 18.8 per cent from the previous year, but still below historical averages.

But for the second month in a row, there was a boost in new supply in Calgary, with Edmonton also witnessing an uptick of listings. The rise of newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offsets a decline in the GTA. 

 

Consistent, stable increase in sales-to-new-listings

 

The national sales-to-new listing ratio rose slightly to 53 per cent, matching our record in April. We’re a long way from returning to what was our highest average of sales-to-new listings which we achieved in December 2023: 81 per cent.

We have been relatively and consistently stable ever since our increase from January’s 46 per cent to February’s 52 per cent. So, it may be some news that we’ve matched our April 2024 average. 

 

Prices

 

After Canada experienced a record high price in 2022, the market recoiled down about as quickly as it jumped up. Since the bottom of the recoil, we’ve seen very little upward or downward momentum in price. 

 

Significant fluctuation in GTA condominiums

 

Toronto area condominium apartments are having a significant fluctuation, with a recoil off of an all-time high price and a few bounces since the blow-off top. 

Source: x.com/Tablesalt13/

 

It’s clear that the outlook doesn’t look good for 2025, as it seems it will touch the 350 margin — the record low from around 450 in January 2022.

 

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Brisk activity expected across Canada’s luxury markets this fall: Royal LePage https://realestatemagazine.ca/brisk-activity-expected-across-canadas-luxury-markets-this-fall-royal-lepage/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/brisk-activity-expected-across-canadas-luxury-markets-this-fall-royal-lepage/#respond Thu, 19 Sep 2024 07:30:39 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34486 Luxury real estate remains stable, with rising sales and confident buyers despite high interest rates and construction costs

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Luxury real estate in Canada’s biggest markets has been stable, with fewer price fluctuations compared to the mainstream housing market.

The 2024 Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Market Report, released today, notes that luxury home sales were up in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, except in Vancouver, Toronto and Halifax. Prices rose slightly in some regions and dropped slightly in others.

 

‘Buyers in this segment know what they want and they are willing to wait for it’

 

“Homes typically trade hands at the high end of the market at a slower pace than we see in the industry overall, as the funnel of potential purchasers narrows as the price of properties climbs. This affords luxury buyers the luxury of acting more deliberately, taking their time in a quest to find exactly the right home,” says Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage.

He explains that although market conditions can vary from one location to the next, luxury real estate market dynamics nationwide stay consistent: “Buyers in this segment know what they want and they are willing to wait for it.”

 

Standout regions

 

Luxury markets in the Prairie provinces, led by Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary, recorded some of the largest sales increases, reflecting strong demand.

Quebec City also saw significant growth in luxury sales.

 

Luxury market activity driven by consumer confidence

 

Luxury buyers, often less impacted by high interest rates and the need for mortgages, are driven by confidence in the broader economy and macroeconomic factors. In some regions, high construction costs are fueling demand for turn-key resale properties, while in others, buyers prefer to build custom homes despite extended timelines.

“Luxury buyers typically have the means to be picky … Often, their decision whether to buy or not is driven by their confidence in the health of the overall economy and the direction they see housing prices headed. Our research shows those in the higher end of the housing market have a very positive outlook on the long-term stability and appreciation potential of Canada’s housing stock,” notes Soper.

 

Foreign buyer ban has minimal impact

 

While the federal government’s two-year ban on foreign buyers, implemented in January 2023, briefly reduced demand in some affluent markets, it has not significantly impacted luxury property prices or inventory levels.

With the ban extended until 2027, Soper notes, “Two years in, and the prohibition on foreign buyers has had virtually no impact on housing prices in Canada, as we expected. Prolonging the international buyer ban will not make housing more accessible to Canadians.”

He explains that the key issue is the upward pressure on prices continuing as long as supply fails to meet the demand for homes.

 

Experts in all major Canadian cities expect to see brisk activity in this fall’s market.

 

Review the full report, including regional summaries.

 

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Ottawa home sales climb in August as market prepares for a busy fall: OREB https://realestatemagazine.ca/ottawa-home-sales-climb-in-august-as-market-prepares-for-a-busy-fall-oreb/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/ottawa-home-sales-climb-in-august-as-market-prepares-for-a-busy-fall-oreb/#respond Fri, 13 Sep 2024 04:01:43 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34350 With a 10.2% increase in sales this August, Ottawa’s real estate market shows signs of strength as interest rates drop and inventory grows

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The Ottawa real estate market saw increased activity in August, with 1,100 homes sold, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 10.2 per cent rise compared to August 2023, though sales remained below both the five-year (-11.4 per cent) and 10-year (-14.1 per cent) averages for the month.

Year-to-date, Ottawa has recorded 9,444 home sales in 2024, a 6.0 per cent increase from the year prior.

 

Buyers remain cautious, advised to remain patient and work with realtors

 

“Being a seasonal market, it’s very encouraging to see sustained levels of activity throughout the whole summer,” says OREB president-elect Paul Czan. “And coupled with a third consecutive interest rate drop from the Bank of Canada, we are anticipating a heated market in the fall.”

While affordability remains a key concern for buyers, a steady stream of new listings and stable prices have kept them cautious. Czan notes that sellers must remain patient and work closely with realtors to price their homes appropriately and develop strong selling strategies.

 

Source: OREB

 

Price trends

 

Last month, the area’s composite benchmark price was $646,000, down by 0.3 per cent year-over-year. The benchmark price was $732,500 for single-family homes (-0.3 per cent), $502,200 for townhouse/row units (+0.3 per cent) and $416,800 for apartments (-1.2 per cent).

The average price of homes sold in August was $660,341, reflecting a 0.3 per cent increase from the year prior. Year-to-date, the average home price stands at $678,327, up 0.9 per cent from the previous year.

 

Inventory & listings

 

Ottawa’s housing inventory saw notable gains in August, with 1,907 new residential listings, 0.2 per cent more than the previous year. Active listings grew by 25.8 per cent to reach 3,324 units, while months of inventory rose to 3.0, up from 2.6 in August 2023.

 

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Metro Vancouver home sales remain below seasonal averages as market finds balance: GVR https://realestatemagazine.ca/metro-vancouver-home-sales-remain-below-seasonal-averages-as-market-finds-balance-gvr/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/metro-vancouver-home-sales-remain-below-seasonal-averages-as-market-finds-balance-gvr/#respond Tue, 10 Sep 2024 04:02:41 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34174 The market remains below the 10-year seasonal average but with increased inventory and balanced conditions, will the fall bring more buyers back?

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Last month’s Metro Vancouver home sales stayed below 10-year seasonal averages, according to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). The region’s residential sales totalled 1,904, marking a 17.1 per cent decline from the 2,296 sales the year before and 26 per cent less than the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.” 

 

Buyers’ hesitancy + new listing activity result in accumulated inventory & balanced market conditions

 

4,109 new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties were on Metro Vancouver’s MLS in August, a 4.2 per cent increase from the 3,943 properties listed the year before. Despite the increase, the total was 1.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,179).

The total number of properties listed for sale stands at 13,812, a 37 per cent rise from August 2023’s total of 10,082 and 20.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,432.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio in August was 14.3 per cent. By category, it was 9.6 per cent for detached homes, 18 per cent for attached homes and 17.2 per cent for apartments.

“Buyers’ hesitancy to enter the market, paired with new listing activity on the part of sellers that is in line with historical averages, has allowed inventory to accumulate for a number of months and has moved the market firmly into balanced conditions,” Lis notes.

He says that with the Bank of Canada reducing the policy rate this month by another quarter percentage point, and with September being a time that often sees more seasonal sales, the fall market should bring more buyers off the sidelines.

 

Where prices landed

 

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently sits at $1,195,900, 0.9 per cent less than August 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than July 2024.

By property type, detached home sales reached 509, a 13.9 per cent decline from 591 the year before. Apartment sales totalled 1,012 in August, 20.3 per cent less than the 1,270 sales in August 2023 and attached homes totalled 370 sales last month, 12.3 per cent less than the 422 sales of the prior year.

 

Review the full report here.

 

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A balanced Greater Vancouver market with modest price growth predicted in 2024 H2: GVR https://realestatemagazine.ca/a-balanced-greater-vancouver-market-with-modest-price-growth-predicted-in-2024-h2-gvr/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/a-balanced-greater-vancouver-market-with-modest-price-growth-predicted-in-2024-h2-gvr/#respond Thu, 05 Sep 2024 04:02:02 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=34128 Greater Vancouver's housing market is heading toward balance in 2024 H2, with steady sales, increased inventory and modest price appreciation expected

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Last week, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) released its 2024 second-half (H2) housing forecast, which reviews new dynamics impacting the market along with economic trends that informed the first half of 2024.

Here are some highlights of what GVR expects for the second half of the year.

 

Sales and price forecasts

 

This year, GVR sales and price forecasts are almost exactly on target, but market balance has shifted from favouring sellers at the year’s start towards more balanced conditions.

GVR’s 2024 first-half (H1) forecast predicted that sales across Greater Vancouver would jump by about 8.0 per cent compared to 2023 (28,250 by year-end).

Sales from January to July this year totalled 16,227, with the prediction being 16,256 — a 0.18 per cent difference. GVR is keeping its year-end sales prediction as-is.

So far, aggregate price metrics have shown slight increases as the H1 forecast predicts, driven by steady sales combined with near-record-low inventory levels at 2024’s start. With these levels rising throughout the past few months, most aggregate price metrics are trending sideways or slightly downward.

Yet the median differential between the list price and sale price for all GVR properties has trended at a close to 2.0 per cent discount since the start of the year.

In the near term, GVR’s outlook for the year’s second half is a balanced market that continues to support modest price appreciation by year-end. The organization keeps its outlook of price appreciation in the 1.0-4.0 per cent range across market segments to year-end.

 

Inventory

 

As sellers stay keen to list their properties, Greater Vancouver hasn’t seen such inventory level highs since 2019. Compared to 2023 levels, this boost has been the biggest surprise in H1 data.

The main drivers behind this trend are a result of steady demand from buyers along with higher-than-expected new listing activity levels, which isn’t of concern to GVR right now. The sense is that increased inventory might be positive, especially for buyers, as it signals a return to more balanced market conditions.

Though sales are below their 10-year average, they’re not the lowest seen before and this isn’t a new trend. Newly listed properties are meeting or exceeding historical averages, which has resulted in accumulated inventory thanks to below-average sales.

GVR found that many factors have contributed to the new listing activity boost, including the fact that early 2023 had lower-than-normal new listing activity and sellers who waited to sell then are possibly doing so this year.

 

Interest rate cut impacts

 

GVR says that while additional reductions to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate are expected this year, it may take longer to see increased buyer demand.

This is suggested by the fact that while the H2 forecast favours another 50-basis point reduction to the policy rate, buyers showed a lack of response to the 50-basis point reduction in H1.

 

Review the full H2 forecast here.

 

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Now is prime time to invest in pre-construction properties — help your clients turn a profit https://realestatemagazine.ca/now-is-prime-time-to-invest-in-pre-construction-properties-help-your-clients-turn-a-profit/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/now-is-prime-time-to-invest-in-pre-construction-properties-help-your-clients-turn-a-profit/#comments Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:03:15 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=33918 Amid fluctuating prices, buyers can acquire properties that appreciate significantly over time — here’s why now’s a great time for pre-sales

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The Canadian real estate market is a dynamic one, often influenced by several economic factors. With the post-pandemic shift in the market, we’ve witnessed a lot of fluctuation in property prices. As prices have recently increased, this trend may cause potential first-time homebuyers to hesitate when purchasing their home. 

However, when it comes to pre-construction properties, now is actually one of the best opportunities to secure a deal. Let’s walk through some of the key reasons why pre-construction investments remain a smart choice, and how you can strategically help your clients navigate the current market.

 

Pre-construction pricing dynamics

 

Best suited for first-time homebuyers, the key fundamental aspect of pre-construction properties is the pricing mechanism. Unlike investing in resale, pre-construction properties are sold at today’s prices but completed and delivered roughly three to four years later. 

What does this mean for your buyers? The price they agree to now does not reflect the final market value at the time of completion. Real estate markets are cyclical, and as history shows, property values are set to appreciate over time. Plus, pre-construction offers a flexible down payment plan best suited for first-time homebuyers. 

Many aspiring buyers are hoping for a further price drop, but by the time their pre-construction property is built, the market is likely to have rebounded, resulting in a property value increase. Essentially, buyers lock in a lower price now for a property that will be worth a lot more in the future. This inherent appreciation potential makes pre-construction properties a lucrative investment.

 

Helping clients adopt a long-term perspective for real estate

 

These days, it’s crucial for both buyers and sellers to educate themselves on why the real estate market is all about long-term perspective. The idea is to build and preserve wealth over time. 

For buyers, this means getting used to market fluctuations and understanding that patience is key. The current dip in real estate presents an opportunity to enter the market at a slightly lower cost, instead of expecting prices to go down further and that values will rise by the time their property is ready. Have these important conversations with your clients.

 

Taking advantage of a buyer’s market

 

In today’s buyer’s market, agents and brokers have a unique opportunity to guide their clients through uncertainty and position them for long-term success. Here are key strategies that can help professionals in the field increase client confidence and close deals effectively:

1. Strengthen negotiation leverage. As an agent,  the ability to negotiate effectively becomes even more critical in a buyer’s market. Educate buyers and investors on the leverage they have, not just in price but in securing favourable terms like extended deposit schedules, builder incentives or upgrade packages. Emphasize the value of these perks, and use them to craft deals that align with buyers’ long-term objectives.

2. Highlight the importance of capital utilization. In a market where things are changing by the minute and liquidity is king, it’s important to convey to your clients the advantages of putting cash reserves to work in real estate over letting them sit idle in bank accounts.

Highlighting how pre-construction properties offer a unique opportunity for growth where they appreciate over time, it’s important to note that property values are expected to rise over the next few years. Investing now means buyers are set to benefit from future appreciation. The property they invest in today at the current price could be worth significantly more by the time it’s completed, providing substantial returns on their investment. Money in low-interest savings accounts can be worth much less in the future, whereas investing in pre-construction can yield better returns.

3. Role of population growth in demand. With the growth in population around urban centres and the increasing opportunities and improved lifestyle benefits that come with it, the demand for housing is only going to increase.

Population growth means more demand for new homes, pushing property values upwards. While we already witness many developers working towards providing more housing options, the short-term price dip is only here for a while before demand increases again. New construction is finite in desirable areas, but this means it will inevitably lead to higher property prices.

Improving economic conditions also results in a return to consumer confidence and, with that, the demand for real estate is also set to increase. This cyclical recovery will bolster property values.

 

Seizing the moment

 

In a buyer’s market, the role of an agent or broker extends beyond merely facilitating transactions. It’s about empowering buyers with the knowledge, strategies and confidence they need to make sound investment decisions.

Real estate is a journey, not a sprint. By thinking long-term and making informed decisions today, your clients can set themselves up for substantial financial gains in the future.

 

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Young GTA buyers shift from downtown condos to suburban homes: Here’s why it’s a problem https://realestatemagazine.ca/young-gta-buyers-shift-from-downtown-condos-to-suburban-homes-heres-why-its-a-problem/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/young-gta-buyers-shift-from-downtown-condos-to-suburban-homes-heres-why-its-a-problem/#comments Mon, 26 Aug 2024 04:02:35 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=33795 High risks, hidden costs and short-term rental competition make downtown living less feasible and attractive.

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The real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is interesting from a younger generation perspective, specifically with the decline of condominium sales and the rise of townhomes/semi-detached/detached home sales.

Condominiums in the past were affordable and the primary purchase of first-time buyers. Their low cost and almost immediate equity return made them enticing for young purchasers. However, this is not as common these days.

 

Daunting market for first-time buyers results in missed opportunity and risk

 

As a realtor in the industry, I’ve always aspired to live downtown in a condominium where the waterfront communities are located, but higher interest rates and current sales showing loss of equity and lower prices to entice buyers makes this a huge risk for a first-time buyer. Even with a longer amortization period being offered for new builds granted by the province, it’s daunting for many younger buyers entering the market.

The hidden costs of new builds mean the majority of buyers don’t have the funds to purchase. Therefore, many younger buyers entering the market are opting out of the risk of investing in a condominium and going for a townhome, semi-detached home or even detached home in an affordable community.

This is unfortunate for everyone involved. For one, the buyer can miss out on the experience of living in a vibrant downtown community like Toronto. As well, it raises the risks for builders due to not enough interest and pre-sale purchases to continue construction, potentially leaving construction projects abandoned and “devaluing” neighbourhoods with gaping holes and partially constructed buildings.

 

Larger homes in affordable areas with future growth similarly priced to downtown condominiums

 

Buying our first property is the biggest purchase of our lives, so it makes sense for buyers entering the market to be wary of what their return on investment will entail. Builders are seeing the backlash from this, with an influx of condominiums on the market advertised for months with little to no interest due to the risk.

This can force a company to not build its future projects because its target demographic isn’t buying existing inventory. If a young working professional has the chance to buy a townhome, semi-detached or detached home in an affordable area for almost the same price as a downtown condominium with the potential of increasing its future value, picking the latter is an unbeatable decision.

 

Bidding wars and short-term rentals alienate younger, first-time buyers

 

The biggest factor in cases of buying a condominium downtown is when it comes to placing an offer and the potential bidding war that ensues. I have friends with the financial means to buy who have attempted to offer on multiple condominiums downtown. They’ve made the cleanest offers with normal conditions to protect themselves, only to be bought out by a “no conditions” firm cash buyer.

Now, it may not be the case for each condominium in the GTA, but in the downtown area alone, many are being bought out by companies with real estate portfolios only looking to add to them and run the unit as a short-term rental. It can be disheartening for anyone who is young and looking to live in the downtown core when there are so many obstacles in the way of achieving that.

There are even condominiums completely run for the purpose of short-term rentals, with the condominium board members themselves profiting. While from an investor perspective there’s nothing wrong with doing this, the flip side of that coin is that it makes it impossible to keep affordable homes for the next generation. Looking ahead, this can mean that sales in the next 10 years may be problematic for those who own homes including condominiums.

This is why many people around my age, in their twenties and thirties — a huge demographic that condominium boards need to consider — are opting out of buying a condominium downtown. It’s what I believe is the biggest reason for declining condominium sales.

 

An Ontario government call-to-action

 

There needs to be stricter policy, especially in the downtown core, regarding the use of short-term rentals specifically in Toronto condominiums.

If Ontario follows the route British Columbia took earlier this year in May with the passing of legislation to restrict short-term rentals, it could make a huge difference in buyers’ mentality around condominiums. Most importantly, it would bring more condominiums to market and decrease the current “unsold” units, estimated at nearly 26,000 on the market.

I believe if a policy akin to the one out west was created in Ontario, many buyers would be living in the condominium as opposed to renting it out short-term for the sole reason of profit.

 

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Ottawa home sales surge by 13.6%, but inventory challenges persist: OREB https://realestatemagazine.ca/ottawa-home-sales-surge-by-13-6-but-inventory-challenges-persist-oreb/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/ottawa-home-sales-surge-by-13-6-but-inventory-challenges-persist-oreb/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 04:02:45 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=33605 Despite the increase in sales, the city remains behind on its housing starts goal, highlighting ongoing challenges in supply growth

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In July, Ottawa’s housing market saw a significant uptick in activity, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS system, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 13.6 per cent increase from July 2023, signaling a strong month for sales.

However, despite this surge, home sales were still 7.1 per cent below the five-year average and 8.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of July. Year-to-date, total home sales reached 8,349 units in July, a 5.5 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

 

Encouraging market activity but Ottawa needs supply-side action

 

“As the market pace typically slows in the summer, July’s activity is encouraging and could be a sign of more gains ahead,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Buyer confidence is slowly but surely catching up while sellers continue to add a steady stream of new listings. Of course, the extent to which that translates into transactions depends on the type of properties and price points available in our communities as supply and affordability issues persist.”

“It’s too early to tell, but recent policy developments could be a boost,” says Fillier. “Two consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, coupled with the federal government’s introduction of 30-year amortization periods on mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes, will help some buyers. However, these are demand policies, and Ottawa — as well as many cities across the country — needs action on the supply side.”

 

Housing supply growth challenges and OREB’s response

 

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted ongoing challenges in housing supply growth, pointing to municipal zoning restrictions and high development fees as significant barriers. Recent Ontario government data underscores these challenges, showing that Ottawa has built 1,593 homes out of its 12,583 target for 2024.

In response, OREB and its member realtors continue to advocate for solutions to the housing crisis, including allowing four units per lot and reducing high development fees.

Source: OREB

 

July prices

 

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was $648,900 in July, a slight increase of 0.1 per cent from July 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $734,700, down 0.1 per cent year-over-year. Townhouse/row units saw a 3.4 per cent increase, with a benchmark price of $506,100. The benchmark apartment price was $422,800, a 0.9 per cent decrease from the previous year.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 was $679,610, down 2.1 per cent from July 2023. Year-to-date, the average price stood at $681,082, up 1.0 per cent from last year.

 

July inventory & new listings

 

July 2024 also saw a 17.1 per cent increase in new residential listings, with 2,231 new listings hitting the market. This figure was 6.3 per cent above the five-year average and 6.9 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of July.

Active residential listings reached 3,480 units by the end of July, marking a 37 per cent increase from the previous year. This inventory level was 50.6 per cent above the five-year average but 2.3 per cent below the 10-year average for July. The months of inventory rose to 2.8 months in July, up from 2.3 months during the same time in 2023.

 

Review the full report here.

 

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